Tag Archives: Obama

Has Syria Used Chemical Weapons? A Primer. Sherifa Zuhur

20 Mar

A Primer on Syria’s Chemical Weapons

Sherifa Zuhur. Director, Institute of Middle Eastern, Islamic and Strategic Studies.
sherifazuhur@gmail.com
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Institute-of-Middle-Eastern-Islamic-and-Strategic-Studies/168189513225439?ref=hl

In August of 2012, U.S. President Obama warned the Syrian government not to use chemical weapons and stated that their use would be unacceptable. He also promised to aid the opposition. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=bsO3ehh8UEk

The opposition has demanded an inquiry into the current use of chemical weapons (CW) on 3/18/13 in an incident in Khan Assal in Aleppo province. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-syria-crisis-chemicalsbre92j0r4-20130320,0,1185396.story Thus far, the U.S. ambassador has said it is unlikely. But if it occurred, would the U.S. make good on its promise to punish Bashar al-Assad’s government or not? To the first question — have chemical weapons been used?

Syria’s chemical weapons program dates back to 1973 when Syria obtained mustard and sarin from Egypt. It is one of the strongest programs in the Middle East region. Syria’s current chemical weapons development is being supervised by Iranian scientists. Ever since 1989, the focus of the program has been on improving the accuracy and distance of potential strikes via the delivery system. Six years ago, Syria possessed 100 to 200 sarin-filled warheads (in 2008) there may be more today. The country has SCUD missiles and SS-21 missiles, both of which may be fitted to CW warheads.

Between late November and early December of 2012, the U.S. government was provided information indicating that Syria was mixing and moving its CW stores, probably for intended use. Photographs showed soldiers preparing precursor chemicals, and army units loading CW onto military transport. In this same period there were some claims of use of a gas or chemical weapon by those injured in Homs and other areas, and some of the injured were biopsied. The most recent claims of March 18, 2013 involve an attack on Khan al-Assal, an area in Aleppo, where the opposition had captured a police academy, and where the Syrian government troops and air force had been attacking in an effort to recapture. It appears the Syrian air force used a missile which then mistakenly hit Syrian forces in the opposition-held area, killing 16 Syrian troops and 10 opposition fighters. (SOHR 3/18, 3/19) The Syrian government’s claim that it was the opposition which had and used CW follows its pattern of terming the opposition “terrorists,” and also may have been expressed to cover up the mistake made by the Syrian military for firing on its own fighters. The missiles were fired from the Nayrab district. The opposition quickly denied that it has any such weapons; indeed the stockpiles are held by the Syrian government (Youtube and Barnard, NYT 3/19/13) Breathing difficulties, bluish skin and suffocation of some of the 26 victims were reported and a Reuters reporter confirmed seeing these symptoms and smelling chorine in the air.

In December one of the fighting groups of the FSA seized one of Syria’s facilities about 40 miles from Aleppo near the Euphrates river, the SYSSACO plant which manufactures chemicals including chlorine. At the time, al-Akhbar, a Lebanese newspaper sympathetic to the Assad regime claimed that there were 100-kilogram tanks of chlorine at that facility. ( http://digitaljournal.com/article/338771 ) The rebels declared the area a closed zone. It seems highly unlikely that the 3/18 bombing could have come from these stocks, or direction.

Previous Use of an CW Agent

The Syrian military attacked the city of Homs (which has been besieged for months) on December 23rd. Victims of attacks on that day suffered from nervous system, respiratory and gastrointestinal symptoms after inhaling a gas on that day. Medical personnel and activists reported the incident, and the U.S. State Department engaged in an investagion from the U.S. Consulate in Istanbul but concluded CW had not been used. Some of the victims of this attack continued to suffer after fleeing as refugees and I was told that some biopsied tissue was returned to the U.S. for evaluation but have not seen any conclusions.

Other Possibilities.

Tear gas is used by the Syrian military (as by other police and militaries) but it is not considered CW, as it is non-lethal. Other CW elements like chlorine, phosgene and mustard gas have been used since World War One in warfare, and are possessed by the Syrian government Chlorine is a powerful agent which burns the throat, nose, eyes and lungs and may kill via asphyxiation. It is water-soluble and masks or the use of a wet cloth have been used to protect against the gas. Phosgene is even deadlier than chlorine, and as a war gas is often mixed with chlorine.

Syria has not signed, nor acceded to the Chemical Weapons Convention. Its primary rationale for not renouncing chemical weapons is that Israel poses a threat to Syrian security. Jane’s Defense has reported on Syria’s upgrading of its CW since 2005, a process reliant on Iranian assistance.

There is no strong evidence that Iraq’s chemical weapons were moved to Syria (although there is no proof they were not, one may surmise that Syria’s CW program is robust on its own).

Syria obtained the design for the Soviet Scud warhead using VX back in the 1970s. It appears that Syria has the capabilities to produce CW agents on its own; it has procued nonpersistent nerve gas since 1984. There is confirmation of its possession of sarin since 1986. Syria’s CW program began with CERS, its Scientific Study and Research Center in Damascus and later, plants in al-Safira, Hama and Homs were established.

By 1987, Syria had sarin-filled warheads on Scud missiles and since then its focus is to increase range and effectiveness of strike capability. After 1997, Syria obtained warhead that could be fitted with bomblet-filled cluster heads and Syria worked to develop V-agents. There appear to be stockpiles of mustard and sarin and the country may have between 100 and 200 Scuds fitted with sarin warheads. As well as sarin and mustard to use in artillery shells or other air-dropped forms. Syria recently conducted a missile test (in August of 2012); Iranians were reported to be present for the tests. Iran and Syria had signed a defense cooperation agreement in June of 2006.

In the summer and fall of 2012, there were 2 warnings that chemical weapons stockpiles were being moved within the country and one claim (by a U.S. official) that Syria has begun mixing sarin – the components are to be stored separately.

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/12/syria-chemical-weapons-3/

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/how-would-assad-use-chemical-weapons

These claims prompted warnings from the United States, France and other nations including China. Russia and Syria denied that Syria would use its chemical arsenal.

Syria’s Biological Weapons Program

Syria is a signatory to the Biological Toxic Weapons Convention, but has not ratified that Convention. Just as its CW program is very advanced, its biological weapons program is also quite robust.

Israeli and German sources state that Syria has botulinum toxin, ricin and Bacillus anthracis, and some other sources state that Syria also has plague, smallpox, aflotoxin, cholera, camelpox and tularemia. Syria then, possesses A, B, and C pathogens and toxins. Syria has advanced pharmaceutical capabilities and thus could have (and according to some accounts has) obtained dual use equipment needed for pharmaceutical and defense research and development. It has research centers in Damascus and Aleppo. Certain U.S. sources are certain that Syria can produce anthrax and botulism, but what was not known is whether it has a formal program to develop delivery systems for these weapons. A 2004 Swedish Defense Agency report said there was no evidence of a defensive or offensive biological weapons program in Syria. However, the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, the CIA, and the DIA have stated opinions to the contrary as have scientists and specialists. Other experts believe that Syria’s CERS (Scientific Studies and Research Center) has the capabilities and expertise to work on these systems, probably involving the use of drones and UAVs, or adapting warheads and cluster munitions to deliver the biological agents.(Cordesman, 2008) Russian advisors are said to be working with the biological warfare program. An American expert contends that there was a transfer from the Iraqi biological warfare (defensive and offensive programs), namely the camelpox virus.

Cordesman claimed that there were some indications that biological variations on ZAB-incendiary bombs and PTAB 500 cluster bombs and Scud warheads were being tested. Syria is technologically capable of designing adapted delivery systems which would have “the effectiveness of small theater nuclear weapons.” However he also noted that the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) held a far more restrained view of Syria’s capabilities in BW development.

A detailed, but accessible interview with Jill Dekkar is here:
http://www.newenglishreview.org/custpage.cfm/frm/13108/sec_id/13108

Thinking about Gaza. Sherifa Zuhur. November 20, 2012

20 Nov

“Thinking about Gaza. “ Sherifa Zuhur November 20, 2012

I have been posting almost exclusively on Syria, although I’ve been posting and following the current Israeli campaign against the people of Gaza, and tracking events all over the Middle East and the Islamic world. I chose to do this on Syria, because much of the news media is excluded, or unable to travel in Syria and some outlets of information are not available in English. People are paying too much attention to the threat of foreign salafist fighters and not enough attention to the daily suffering of Syrians.

However, what has happened in Gaza is important on several levels. On one level – which I have no space or energy to comment on today – Israel has, with this campaign, attempted to reassert its regional position, and ability to wage campaigns against Palestinians without any serious challenge from the international community and without any military or political consequence from local powers – such as Egypt, Turkey, or Iran. Israel is reasserting its free hand and military superiority.

On another level, we have again witnessed the insidious nature of Israel’s military and psychological strategy against the Palestinians, and determination to outweigh, censor, and out-PR protests in the international arena – the only place where a pushback would make any difference.

Don’t be fooled. No matter which party Gazans might have elected in 2006 and no matter what concessions that party made, or didn’t make, Israel’s determination to confine, punish and continuously destroy their capacity for resistance is fierce. Resistance is the key word here. The reason that Hamas was elected, and the reason that Israel has waged assassinations galore, air strikes and the invasion in 2008-9, even the true cause of Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza is that it wishes to obliterate Palestinians’ ability to resist Israeli political, military, security and land- and water-seizing demands.

It is always best to simplify our thinking. What scared Israelis more than any other events in the last seven decades? The two intifadhas. Why? They expressed resistance. An unexpected, lingering resistance that, according to all key strategists (group and individual thinkers) should have been wiped out ages ago, along with Palestinian expectations or fantasies that other Arab nations would help them achieve repossession of their land and properties, or even, simple justice – some repossession, return or remediation and political and human freedoms. Simple freedoms, like the right to move or travel from one place to another. The right to elect their own representatives.

Whatever its faults, overreach, and inability to deal with other Palestinian parties fratricidal tendencies and betrayals, Hamas symbolized a group that continued to call for resistance.

I won’t even address the silly argument that the US President has bought into – that Israelis are being bombarded by rockets day and night and have a right to not be shelled “by another country.” Just state that in reverse, Obama – Palestinians had rights that were violated, and now they have rights to not be shelled, bombarded, and vaporized by ‘another country.’ Qassam rockets are not the reason for the current conflict.

Instead, Israel sought to provoke a new wave of “resistance” and did so by first attacking a teenager, and then assassinating Ahmad Jabari, the Hamas leader who had just prior to his death, received a (presumably false) treaty proposal. Palestinians launched rockets in response. Yes. As for a time, they launched suicide attacks, or knifings in the Second Intifadha and youths learned to throw stones and burn tires in the First Intifadha.

Don’t believe for one minute in the parity of the two forces as is being claimed by the Western and Israeli media and our foolish and negligent governments.

Gaza is nothing but a large Yarmouk camp, with a beautiful beach, a beautiful sky and people with no prospects, no assurances, and most importantly, no sovereignty.

Complying, giving in, negotiating, has not brought about sovereignty. So why are we so surprised that the language of resistance persists?

This little blip of an air campaign has cost 116 Palestinian lives and 900 have been injured – so far 3 Israelis were killed. For the Israelis – for Netanyahu, this campaign is important to bolster his showing at the polls as a person/party who will supply that impossible quality — “security” – to Israelis. But the reason that absolute security is impossible to guarantee is because it is at the expense of another people’s sovereignty and human rights.