This should correct some misstatements about the legality of the Iraqi parliament’s actions and what’s next.
From Sajad Jiyad (who is Managing Director of the Bayan Center in Baghdad)
The Iraqi Government has a set of agreements and requests for assistance with foreign nations (such as the US) & organizations (such as NATO & Coalition) to advise, train & support the Iraqi Security Forces. Most of these are for the purpose of combatting Daesh, some are wider.
Parliament did not enact any legislation to govern these agreements, they were set about in an exchange of diplomatic notes by Iraq’s MoFA and the other side. As such, the government can cancel these agreements without reverting to parliament.
These requests & agreements do not dictate a timetable in the event of their cancellation. It is plausible that such action from the Iraqi side will build in a lengthy period but not beyond 2020. The other side may decide to withdraw rather than be pushed out.
The PM did not initiate the process to remove foreign troops but urged parliament to do so. 2 main reasons for this:
– the ramifications, sovereignty issues, procedural. As outgoing govt having support of parliament resolution better
– pressure on parliament than cabinet.
Parliament resolution to government:
– cancel request for assistance from Coalition
– remove all foreign troops, prevent use of land & airspace
– keep weapons in hands of govt
– lodge complaint against the US at the UN for violating sovereignty
– investigate US airstrike .
Goverment has 3 choices:
– ignore parliament resolution
– act on it (quick or slow)
– return to parliament with draft bill for the above (time wasting/buck passing)
Legal opinions abound on all this but history shows politicians ignore constitution/process/law when expedient.
The PM said the US and Iraqi priorities are diverging (US in Iraq to combat Iran primarily so will carry out further such actions), cannot guarantee safety of US troops in Iraq and nor can US itself so best to remove them to prevent reprisals and escalation.
Around 150 MPs did not attend the vote, the majority of whom likely oppose the expulsion of foreign troops. At this moment in time government has not yet decided to remove foreign troops but it is probable soon as things stand.
Jane Arraf asked him and his co-speaker if the US could stay in Kurdistan, and both said that as things now stand, the US would have to leave KRG as well as Iraq.
Now to my observations. Avaz and Mashhad witnessed HUGE demonstrations of mourning for Soleimani tonight and his body reached Tehran for its funeral tomorrow.
These are not state-ordered turnouts, Iranians are genuinely outraged on the basis of nationalism.
What comes next will occur rather swiftly in Iraq – and if there are other aspects to Iran’s reaction, those may take more time.
Muqtada Sadr issued a very strongly worded statement calling the one issued in Parliament weak. He calls for the ouster of US troops as well, and has now for a second time, also announced that the Mahdi army is reconstituted. He is in Iran and he could return to Iraq.
I realize I haven’t blogged for a long time. I was distressed by the many arrests and detentions in Egypt and a sense that no-one is listening to reason there. I will try to get back to it.
sherifazuhur 